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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021555
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 10N87W TO 08N94W TO 09N101W TO 08N109W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 08N109W TO 06N117W TO 06N124W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N128W TO 03N140W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 06N126W TO 10N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N82W TO 10N88W TO 07N94W TO 10N102W TO 07N116W...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT HAS JUST ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA AT 30N140W. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST N OF 27N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. THIS EVENT WILL PEAK BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

SEAS TOPPING OUT AT JUST BELOW 8 FT ARE OBSERVED SW OF BAJA AND THE MEXICAN COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING AS RESIDUAL SW SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.

LATEST ALTIMETRY SHOWS SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT BETWEEN 07N AND 12N W OF 134W. CORRESPONDING ASCAT IMAGERY INDICATES FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THIS REGION. RIDGING TO THE N WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES LATE TUE. AS THE HIGH REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST AND SEAS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE 8 FT IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRIGGER A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT BEGINNING BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A TAD ON WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL SUGGESTS NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED AROUND 1200 UTC ON THU AND FRI IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE MAXIMUM.

$$ MCELROY

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