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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 21.6N 109.9W AT 21/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS 45 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W OF CENTER. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK POLO WILL PASS S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 11N93W 8N108W TO 9N116W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N121W ALONG 12N132W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N E OF 87W TO OVER COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 9N W OF 81W...N MONSOON TROUGH TO 13N BETWEEN 91W-97W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 94W-109W.


...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS N OF 25N W OF 115W AND FROM 14N-25N W OF 120W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 27N137W TO 20N120W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

$$ PAW

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