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AXPZ20 KNHC 062201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG N-NE 30-45 KT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 12-20 FT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 40-50 KT STORM FORCE EVENT THIS EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAXIMUM OF ABOUT 22-23 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX BY SAT MORNING WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AROUND 1800 UTC...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SUN MORNING...AND BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUE NIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE ON WED EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N87W TO 02N98W TO 04N104W THEN RESUMES AT 04N108W TO 02N125W TO BEYOND 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 40N127W TO 20N110W. THE TRADE WINDS SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT IN MIXING NE TRADES...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SW OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. REINFORCING NE SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM A STORM EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WILL PROPAGATE WSW INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS TO THE S OF 13N...AND SPREAD W ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 110-120W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK MIXING WITH THE NE TRADE WIND SWELL.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR 30N140W BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 20-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE N OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS EVENING. COMBINED SEAS ESTIMATED TO 6 FT IN THE OPEN LONG FETCH WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT THIS EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF FONSECA...NE 20-25 KT WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AND SPREAD AS FAR SW AS 09N93W. THE ENHANCED NE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX CONSIDERABLY ON MON...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT.

GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD AS FAR S AS 05N81W TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AS FAR SW AS 04N82W ON EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MAX SEAS OF 9 FT EACH NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PANAMA.

$$ GR

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