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AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JIMENA...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 125.6W OR ABOUT 1285 MILES W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEPICTED EYE FEATURE OF ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER SURROUNDING THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUTWARD TO WITHIN 480 NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER ON MON AT WHICH TIME IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 15.6N 135.4W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER MON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS


...TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N107W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW CLOUD FIELD TURNING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED FROM 10N- 15N BETWEEN 101W-109W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SW FLOW INTO IT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N78W NW TO 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N107W 1008 MB AND WSW TO 10N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 103W- 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-91W AND WITHIN 60 NM O THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-93W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 94.5W-98W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 32N127W TO NEAR 27N131W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO NEAR 32N134W WITH A PRES OF 1023 MB. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK THE FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ONCE IT REACHES THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN WHERE IT DISSIPATES. THE PRES GRADIENT WELL TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN ON MON INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT IN NW SWELL BRIEFLY ON MON. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 22N138W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 25N139W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT DURING SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT.

$$ AGUIRRE

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