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AXPZ20 KNHC 260902
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 08.5N95W to low pres near 10.5N111W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to 09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 08N between 87W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 104W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 nm of monsoon trough between 110W and 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

High pressure of 1034 mb centered N of the area near 43N137W extends a ridge SE to near 16N110W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure across Mexico is producing fresh to strong northwest winds across the near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally south of 22N and west of 120W. Seas across this trade wind zone will remain in the 5-7 ft range through the end of the week. Weak low pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough near 10.5N111W as depicted in the latest ascat pass. Winds over the NW quadrant of the low are reaching near 20 kt. Active convection is noted over the western semicircle of the low. The low is expected to remain weak over the next couple of days as it drifts WNW.

Over the far eastern portion of the area, light to gentle winds prevail with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell. SW monsoonal winds will strengthen over the next day as a Kelvin wave propagates through the area and enhances westerly winds. Seas will build to near 8 ft in this region of enhanced monsoonal flow.

Gulf of California...

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of California near 30N114W. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail over the far northern Gulf of california over the southern semicircle of the low. Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf of California. The weak low pressure will dissipate this morning with winds diminishing.

$$ AL

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