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AXPZ20 KNHC 300856
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0815 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO INTO THE REGION NEAR 15N98W TO 12N99W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N99W ALONG 11N109W TO 10N117W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N128W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 21N106W TO 19N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF AREA N OF 18N E OF 109W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-98W AND FROM 7N- 10N BETWEEN 93W-111W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF MARIE IS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N135W. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION IS WELL N OF THE REGION. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER MAINLY WEST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W-NW THEN W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOVERING ALONG 31N BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE TUE. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY SUN AFTERNOON.

A 1026 MB HIGH HAS REFORMED TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 38N135W AND THEN DRAPES TO THE E OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE AND A SECOND NARROW RIDGE FROM NEAR 34N145W TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. MEANWHILE TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO IS GIVING A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN RIDGE AND TROUGH WHICH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 TO 8 FT JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ PAW

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