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AXPZ20 KNHC 042112
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 2100 UTC SEP 4 MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. KEVIN HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS STARTED A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIMINISHING SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SATURDAY AND FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N98W TO 10N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 83W AND 101W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 28N118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS- EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF LINE FROM 02N134W TO 10N127W TO 10N102W TO 03.4S92W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 10N105W WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT

$$ AL

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