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AXPZ20 KNHC 310913
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0730 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.5N 101.0W OR ABOUT 390 NM...725 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 31/0900 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS VANCE MOVES TO THE W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 1600 UTC THU SHOWED 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL STORM VANCE TO THE S IS FUNNELING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AS DRAINAGE FLOW REACHES A MAXIMUM. STRONG VERTICAL MIXING OF THE WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD...DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATER IN PLACE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40 KT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY SUN MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-2015.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N86W TO 09N92W TO 10N96W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N105W TO 12N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER WATERS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 89W AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.


...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W. WINDS AT OR ABOVE A STRONG BREEZE NEAR THE FRONT HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. NW SWELL TO 9 FT CAN BE FOUND OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 12 FT. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...WITH TRADEWINDS INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO 21N AND W OF 130W.

NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE EARLY SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$ SCHAUER

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