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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTED TO INDUCE BRIEF PERIOD OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TONIGHT N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 0000 UTC UNTIL 0900 UTC. BY EARLY SAT MORNING THE PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT WITH 20 TO 30 KT WINDS LIKELY N OF 13-14N BETWEEN 95-96W IN THE REGION. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11-12 FT TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 9-10 FT SAT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N83W TO 03N90W TO 04N96W... WHERE THE ITCZ BECOMES EVIDENT...THEN CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 117W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.


...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N144W TO 24N125W TO 20N113W. HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE DIFFUSE W OF 100W THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD E OF 135W SAT AND SUN...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM 30N117W TO 27N130W SAT NIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH-STRONG SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 110W THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL NE WIND SURGES TO 20-25 KT WILL RESUME TONIGHT...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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