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AXPZ20 KNHC 060955
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...PEAKING AROUND 45 KT...AND ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT STORM FORCE RANGE OF 50 TO 55 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING DUE TO A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE BY SUN NIGHT AND TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL POSSIBLY MATERIALIZE AGAIN MON NIGHT. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE N TO NE SWELL OF 8 FT AND GREATER EXTENDING BEYOND 800 NM TO THE S AND 800-900 NM TO THE SW OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS IS RESULTING IN A LARGE PLUME OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE E-NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06N95W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA REGION ON SAT...WHICH WILL EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND ALSO EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. THIS PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N88W TO 03N99W TO 05N111W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N W OF 121W.


...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 33N129W SE TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...AND 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN A LARGE PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 9 TO 10 FT IN THE LOCALIZED AREAS OF 25 TO 30 KT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THUS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON BASIN. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT E OF 120W. THIS SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 5-6 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...STRONG NE TRADES CONTINUE TONIGHT S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...GENERALLY FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN W OF 122W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FT. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 116W AND 126W BY EARLY MON...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO A 9 TO 11 FT RANGE. FINALLY...BY SUN...NW SWELL ORIGINATING FROM A COLD FRONT TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL INTRODUCE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT N OF 28N W OF 138W AND UPON CLOSER APPROACH EARLY MON SEAS WILL BUILD DUE TO THE NW SWELL INTO A RANGE OF 8 TO 13 FT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 25N W OF 135W BY MONDAY.

$$ HUFFMAN

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