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AXPZ20 KNHC 272158
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUN. NORTHERLY SURGES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 04N77W TO 04N96W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES NW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 08N117W THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 06N83W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 03N90W AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N117W TO 10N126W TO 08N140W.


...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER ARIZONA TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 09N135W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER COLOMBIA ACROSS THE TROPICS TO A ILL- DEFINED CREST NEAR 05N105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE CONCENTRATING INTO INTO A 500 NM WIDE PLUME THAT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 20N110W. A BROAD MIX OF SWELLS HAS RESULTED COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF 133W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE ARE CURRENTLY SUBSIDING TO NW AT 10-15 KT...BUT THE ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 5-8 FT SEAS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT ON SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BATCH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W ON SAT NIGHT...AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 22N ON SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 10-15 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN RELAX TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND MON NIGHTS.


.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.



$$ NELSON

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