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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260231
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Pilar has dissipated along the Mexican coast near 23.9N106.9W, were an isolated cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms continues tonight. A trough of low pressure extends from this area WSW to near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California Sur. Along and to the south of this trough, westerly winds of 15 to 20 kt are found across the entrance to the Gulf of California with seas 5- 6 ft. Low level moisture will linger along the western slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidentales and the coastal zones from Guadalajara to central Sinaloa through Tue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, some yielding very heavy rain.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N72W TO 15N96W TO 13N105W TO low pressure near 13N124.5W 1008 MB TO beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 14.5N E of 95W, from 10N to 14N between 95W and 106W, and from 90 nm N to 150 nm S of the trough between 123W and 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As described above, wind and seas associated with the remnants of Pilar have subsided to 20 kt or less and 6 ft or less between the entrance to the Gulf of California and Las Tres Marias, and will slowly diminish further late tonight through Tue.

A high pressure ridge reaches SE into the waters west of Baja California to near 19N116W, with the associated pressure gradient expected to maintain moderate NW winds along the Pacific coast of Baja tonight. The ridge will weaken in response to low pressure passing well to the north and NW winds will become gentle to moderate Tuesday through Thursday night. Fresh SW to W monsoonal winds well offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate SW wind waves in the SE waters and maintain seas in this area of 5 to 7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough along and inland of the coasts of Central America from Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection over the coastal waters the next few days. Expect moderate SW to W winds to prevail south of the trough, with gentle to moderate variable winds north of the trough through Friday night. Active convection will prevail across the regional waters for the next few days.

Long period SE to S swell will decay and allow seas west of Ecuador and south of the Equator to subside from around 6 ft to around 5 ft during the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW to N swell generated by strong winds north of the area are producing 6 to 7 ft seas N of 20N and W of 120W. Pulses of reinforcing N swell will maintain seas in the region between 6 and 8 feet through Wed night.

Fresh to strong winds occurring around low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 13N124.5W are supporting a surrounding area of 8 to 11 ft seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong winds extend farther E to near 120W there, where seas are 8-9 ft. Monsoonal SW winds will remain fresh to strong across this general area between 09N and 14N through Wed and maintain seas 8- 9 ft.

Otherwise, high pressure centered well N of the area, and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W through tonight. Low pressure passing north of the area will weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease for the remainder of the week.

$$ Stripling

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