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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191530
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 107.7W OR ABOUT 150 MILES SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...AND ABOUT 285 MILES SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 1500 UTC SEP 19. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 982 MB. POLO IS MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 6 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SLOW SLIGHTLY. A TURN TO THE W-NW IS EXPECTED ON SAT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 55 KT WITH GUSTS 55 KT.

NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO POLO IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 105W-111W. CONVECTION OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 21N AND 24N...AND MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 24N AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N77W TO 10N90W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N120W TO 12N131W. ITCZ FROM 12N131W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 88W-99W AND IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N125W TO 23N135W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 15N W OF 117W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N108W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYLONE IS ALLOWING OUTFLOW FOR TROPICAL STORM POLO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 20N122W. THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN 120W AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY 4-6 FT SEAS IN MIXING N AND S SWELL.

$$ DGS

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