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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201600
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N87W 1009 MB NW TO 14N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N101W 1007 MB TO 12N112W TO 10N126W TO 09N136W. ITCZ FROM 10N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W-132W...AND WITHIN 60 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W- 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 81W- 88W.


...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 26N W OF 125W WITH ITS MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 32N132W TO 22N140W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N OF 20N AND EASTWARD TO FAR WESTERN MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR LEFT BEHIND FROM A RECENTLY DEPARTED UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 19N BETWEEN 118W AND THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...AND ALSO N OF 14N E OF 118W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE TROPICAL REGION OF THE AREA FROM 04N TO 20N WITH AN ASSOCIATED SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 12N121W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 10N144W. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. THE RELATED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS OBSERVED IN THE COMPOSITE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) ANIMATION HAS DECREASED SOME...HOWEVER SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 79W-94W...AND ALSO FROM 09N N TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W-106W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 16N102W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIOANRY THROUGH TUE...THEN SHIFT SOME TO THE E OR ESE WED. SW 20 KT OR LESS MONSOON FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY EARLY ON TUE...AND EXPAND SOME TO THE E THEREAFTER WITH SEAS OF 8 OR 9 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON WED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DISSIPATING ALONG A POSITION FROM 32N127W SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL...EXCEPT FOR MUCH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF 12-16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W. BY EARLY TUE...SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE NW OF LINE FROM 32N115W TO 16N128W TO 12N140W...WITH HIGHER SEAS OF 10-14 FT N OF 21N BETWEEN 122W- 135W. BY EARLY WED...SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE DIFFUSING WITH SEAS IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE NW OF A LINE FROM 22N111W TO 07N140W. THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FAR NE PART AT THAT TIME. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$ AGUIRRE

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