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AXPZ20 KNHC 251528
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N87W TO 02N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 05N- 08.5N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 13.5N97.5W TO 02N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND S OF 07N BETWEEN 95W- 110W AND FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 97W-104W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AROUND 10 KT THROUGH WED MORNING. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N BY WED MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N132W 1009 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS DISPLACED BETWEEN 90 NM AND 420 NM E QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 13N132W BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT. THE RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM 0624 UTC SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE NE QUADRANT. ALTIMETER PASSES CONFIRM A SIZABLE AREA OF SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN THE AREA OF THE LOW FROM 10N-21N W OF 132W AND FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 125W-132W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH WINDS LIKELY DIPPING BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON TUE.


...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N129W AND 25N122W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO AND ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 32N130W AND 26N132W TO 22N139W. THESE RIDGE AXES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED MORNING. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 24N140W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUE AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS. THE 0802 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N117W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR IT IN THE AREA S OF 07N BETWEEN 95W-110W AND FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 97W-104W. 30-40 KT EASTERLY SHEAR LIES OVER THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS NEAR THE LOW AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS POSITION OR INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO BATTLE EASTERLY SHEAR.

A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE CROSSED THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4 FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OR COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY TUE MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST S OF TODOS SANTOS ON THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY WED MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED ENTERING AND EXITING HARBORS DURING THIS TIME.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHING TO THE SW ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 84W-87W HAS GENERATED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE 1200 UTC WINDSAT PASS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 9 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL. BY TUE NIGHT...THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD AGAIN BUILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW WITH SEAS TO 9 FT.

$$ SCHAUER

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