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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N88W to 09N100W to 13N120W to
a low pressure area near 11.5N128W 1009 mb to 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are within 180 nm of the
monsoon trough axis between 95W and 115W. Clusters of moderate
and isolated strong convection are within 90 nm of the low
center.

...DISCUSSION...

A surface ridge axis extends from high pressure north of the
area to 25N125W to near 15N105W. Fresh to strong northerly winds
between this ridge and a front over the interior western United
States support combined seas to 8 ft over our forecast waters
along 30N several hundred miles west of Baja California. The
ridge will intensify over the next few days which will result in
fresh northerly winds expanding southward to near 25N between
123W and 130W along with combined seas of 8 ft. Between the
ridge axis and 17N, mainly moderate northeasterly trades prevail
with seas between 5 and 7 ft.

The pressure gradient between low pressure along the monsoon
trough near 11.5N128W and the ridge to the north is supporting
fresh to occasionally strong northeasterly winds within a couple
hundred miles northwest of the low. The ridge to the north will
intensify over the next few days which result in a broader area
of fresh to strong winds with seas increasing to 8 to 9 ft
within a couple hundred nm north of the low Mon and Tue.

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
enhanced Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap winds to 25 kt each night for
the next several days. The Gulf of Papagayo will also experience
enhanced winds to 20 to 25 kt until this evening. Additional
increased winds are forecast each night over the Gulf of
Papagayo. However, winds will only increase marginally to 15 to
20 kt.

A very broad area of sw swell will cross the equator tonight and
propagate over the southern waters south of the monsoon trough
mainly west of 95W through the first half of next week.

$$
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