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AXPZ20 KNHC 101534
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 14-19 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI MORNING. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 90W-102W TONIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF PAPAGAYO TODAY THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING BEFORE RETURNING EARLY THU MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 06N101W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10-14 FT WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS ALSO EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N86W TO 03N95W TO 06N110W TO 02N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-118W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N127W TO 20N110W. N-NE WINDS OF 5-15 KT CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 110W-120W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 97W-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC... FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W OF 86W. A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHRINKING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-9 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES WILL IMPACT THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 07N-13N W OF 128W THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-11 FT WHERE NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD SW AND NW SWELL ARE MIXING. TO THE N...NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N130W TO 24N140W HAS BROUGHT 8-11 FT SEAS TO THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS IN NW WATERS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS THU AND SWEEP LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL AND SEAS OVER 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 32N132W TO 25N140W BY FRI MORNING. PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL TRAIN WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE FOR LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS.

$$ SCHAUER

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