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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 98W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A CLUSTER A MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER EASTERN GUERRERO MEXICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 06N TO 15N. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ALONG WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT REACHING 120W LATE WED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N128W TO 11N136W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND TROPICAL WAVES...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW PRES ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 24N122.5W. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT PERSISTS WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 11N128W. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND NOW SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME BANDING FEATURES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITHIN AROUND 120 NM TO THE N OF THE CENTER.

ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 15N139W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF 20-25 KT FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE N- CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N128W TO 25N124W TO 20N124W TO 15N125W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGHING GENERALLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REMNANT OF HERNAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 133W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 24N115W. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WWD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N109W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ELY WINDS ALOFT ARE E OF 100W.

MIXED SW AND SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THIS REGION.

$$ GR

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