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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230230
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE SEP 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N99W AND IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 14N954W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 14N99W ALONG 9N106W 6N126W TO 4N132W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 13N125W ALONG 11N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 85W-87W INCLUDING COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 92W-94W...WITHIN 150 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-109W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 105W-108W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANTS OF POLO IS A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 22N115W. STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REMAIN SURROUNDING THE LOW AND ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH/SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS THROUGH 32N128W TO 24N140W SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE WITH SEAS INCREASING BY EARLY WED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 27N107W AND COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N E OF 120W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THIS UPPER RIDGE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER MEXICO AND S OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N E OF 106W TO OVER MEXICO AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 87W-92W.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 25N140W TO BEYOND 32N126W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.

$$ PAW

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