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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA HAS SHIFTED W OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 141.4W AT 0300 UTC SEP 02. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 160 NM NE AND 130 NM SE QUADRANTS. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 360 NM NE AND 200 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W BY WED. REFER TO THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 114.6W AT 0300 UTC SEP 02...MOVING NW 325 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY EARLY WED. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N80W TO 09N84W TO 11N93W TO 09N100W TO 11N104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 102W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 44N155W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE AREA OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF JIMENA AND TD FOURTEEN-E. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS CURRENTLY FOUND S OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 126W. BY THURSDAY NIGHT SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 04.5N BETWEEN 102W AND 132W.

$$ AL

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