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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310257
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MEDIUM.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/104W FROM 09N TO 18N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CONVECTION VALID 0230 UTC WED JUL 30...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N123W TO 14N123W TO 11N121W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W.

1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W.


.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 09N103W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N133W...TO 13N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 118W...AND FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND 100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W...AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N125W. THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY ON THE DVORAK SCALE. LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE 30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE ON THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL HAVE SLOWED DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND THEY WILL RETURN TO 20 KNOTS OR SO BY FRIDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE.

$$ MT

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