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AXPZ20 KNHC 012146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL SEND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES MON NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEFORE SUNSET ON MON. A QUICK BURST OF 30-35 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SUNRISE TUE. MEANWHILE...A CUT OFF LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO...ALLOWING THE MID TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY TUE. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST EXPIRE AFTER SUNRISE TUE AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 10-12 FT TUE MORNING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 06N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N92W TO 06N100W TO 04N100W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W AS WELL AS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 136W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N132W SENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO SOCORRO ISLAND AND ANOTHER SW THROUGH 25N140W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES PRIOR TO 1900 UTC SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS HAS SHRUNK WESTWARD AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE OVER W WATERS TONIGHT AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. SEAS OVER 8 FT WITHIN THE TRADE WIND BELT ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE WINDS COME DOWN A NOTCH.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AND LIES OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS CUT OFF LOW IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N105W TO 17N108W TO 12N114W ACCORDING TO LIGHTNING DATA...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN 19N AND 26N. THE CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO....BUT THE LOCATION OF THE SW JET PROPELLING MOISTURE INTO MEXICO SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND MAZATLAN INLAND TO N CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 1552 UTC ASCAT-B PASS OBSERVED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 87W. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONG BREEZE SHOULD TAKE A BRIEF REPRIEVE DURING THE DAY MON BEFORE BECOMING REINVIORATED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING. THE BUILDING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW A FRESH BREEZE TO PERSIST INTO TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT.

$$ SCHAUER

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