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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240947
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
855 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 14.5N 123.9W at 0900 UTC, or
about 1085 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Georgette is moving WNW or 290 degrees at 9 kt.
Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has dropped to 988
mb. A tight concentric pattern of convection continues to surround
Georgette's center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 75 nm of the center, while scattered
moderate convection is present elsewhere within 180 nm of the
center. Georgette is expected to continue moving WNW during the
next couple of days but begin to weaken during the next 12 hours.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 19.9N 111.8W at 0900 UTC, or
about 240 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California. Frank is moving WNW, or 305 degrees at 7 kt. Maximum
sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt while estimated
minimum central pressure stays at 996 mb. Frank continues to move
under NE upper-level wind shear, which is displacing most of the
deep convection to the southwest of the center. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm of
the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
found elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 109W and 115W. Frank is
expected to continue moving NW during the next couple of days and
remain under the influence of this northeast upper-level wind
shear. This will discourage intensification of Frank. Frank is
not expected to change much in intensity during the next 24 hours.
Large S to SE swell from Frank will impact the Mexican coastlines
from the Cabo Corrientes region to Baja California Sur during the
next couple of days and shift northward into central portions of
the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough and dangerous
surf along the local coastlines. Refer to the latest NHC forecast
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more
details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A tropical wave north of 11N near 98W is just W of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region and is moving into southwestern Mexico and the
adjacent coastal waters. The wave has little associated convection.

A second tropical wave extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula
southward to the Pacific waters along 90W. This wave will shift to
the W over southeastern Mexico and the adjacent near and offshore
coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours. The wave will continue
to spawn active convection.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N84W to 10N94W to
08N102W to 09N106W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to beyond
08N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present from 04N
to 12N E of 108W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240
nm N of the ITCZ between 131W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

The center of Frank has crossed the Revillagigedo Islands and has
begun moving away to the NW. Frank continues to generate large SE
swell that has reaching the southern entrance of the Gulf of
California between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Offshore
seas of 6 to 9 ft are present in this area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft
will cover the Pacific offshore waters off Baja California Sur
through early Monday, away from the immediate vicinity of Frank.
This will create rough and hazardous marine conditions across the
offshore waters, and large and powerful surf along the exposed
coastal areas of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong
rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout the
weekend. As Frank moves NW Monday and Tuesday, it will encounter
cooler waters and begin to weaken over the open Pacific.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N135W to
W of Baja California Sur near 21N119W. Moderate southerly flow
will persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and
resident troughing wandering over the peninsula. These southerly
winds could increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far northern
portions of the Gulf of California early this morning as high
pressure builds to the northwest. The building high pressure will
also support strong N winds offshore of California this morning through
Sunday, allowing N swell to cause seas to build to 8 ft or higher
and propagate southward to 26N by Sunday. Combined seas of 7 to 9
ft will develop in the offshore waters off Baja California Norte
Sunday into early next week in mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh E winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther W, Georgette has moved to the W of the area, taking the
associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater with it.

West of 120W:

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered to the W of the
forecast area at 24N142W at 0900 UTC moving westward at around 15
kt. Satellite imagery continues to show a low level cloud swirl
surrounding the low with no significant convection. Associated winds
and seas will gradually diminish through the weekend as Estelle
continues to weaken and move farther W of the area. However, this remnant
low continues to produce a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This
has resulted in a light wind regime persisting over the deep
tropics. Fresh N winds and shorter period swell of 7 to 9 ft will
push south of 32N to 26N between 120W and 136W Sunday until the
middle of next week.

$$
CAM

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