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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ANDRES...THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W AT 30/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N114W TO 11N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO THE HURRICANE. SWELLS GENERATED BY ANDRES COULD IMPACT THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND LOS CABOS BY SAT EVENING SPREADING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUN. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/ MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 101W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HURRICANE ANDRES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC CURVATURE. STRONG UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N138W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AND MAINLY FROM 10N TO 12N W OF 138W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS CROSSING 140W ON SUN.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE N WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT WEST AHEAD OF ANDRES APPROACHING FROM THE SE. THE CENTER OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AROUND 240 NM SW OF CLARION ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR CLARION ITSELF TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WILL SEE 20 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY WITH SEAS OF 12-14 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LOWER PRES IN THE DEEP TROPICS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY MON MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF NE-E 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT.

A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO BEYOND 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ON SAT EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W BY SAT NIGHT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

$$ GR

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