AXPZ20 KNHC 220323

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Nov 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds are expected to develop rapidly late Wed afternoon, as a cold front moves quickly southward across Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico. Light winds across the Tehuantepec region Wed morning and afternoon with quickly increase to 20-25 kt by mid-afternoon and then blast 30-40 kt by late afternoon into the evening hours, and continue through Thu morning. Minimal gale force winds will persist through Fri morning. Expect seas to build to 14 to 17 FT near 14.5N95.5W by late Thu. The resultant NE swell will propagate SW, mixing with long-period cross equatorial swell, with seas 8 ft or higher across the waters well downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, roughly within 120 nm of line from 12N97W to 07N100W early Fri before beginning to subside.


The eastern Pacific monsoonal circulation has weakened in recent days with the monsoon trough currently extending from the semi- permanent low pressure near 10N75W across Panama on to 08N96W. the ITCZ then begins from 08N96W TO 08N110W TO 10N130W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted generally from 10N to 15N and W of 136W...and within 60 NM of 14N132.5W.



See Special Features paragraph above for information on the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A weak NW to SE orientated ridge extends from a 1019 mb surface high near 31N124W across the waters just beyond 250 nm seaward of the Baja Peninsula and will maintain light to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters N of 20N through early Wed. A weak trough is expected to form extending SW from the central Baja Peninsula to near 23N116W, and continue through early Fri before filling. This will occur as the ridge shifts slightly NW and act to weaken weaken winds through the week, with light to gentle winds prevailing. Expect seas in the 3 to 4 ft range through Thu, building to 4 to 7 ft across the waters N of 25N late in the week.

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing at 20 to 25 KT and should gradually subside by early Wed. Seas are expected to peak at around 5-7 ft through central portions tonight. The pressure gradient will relax thu and Fri, with light and variable winds expected through Sun.


Gulf of Papagayo: Light drainage flow expected during the overnight hours through Thu, with fresh to locally strong nocturnal drainage beginning on Fri and continuing through the upcoming weekend.

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, are expected elsewhere to the N of the monsoon trough which has been meandering between 09N and 11N, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds, and 3 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A NE to SW aligned ridge will meander from 32N125W to 22N137W for the next several days. Fresh southerly winds, currently across the NW waters will diminish to less than 20 kt on Wed as the ridge weakens allowing a reinforcing cold front to approach the far NW portion the area Wed and stall near the NW corner Thu. Long period NW swell, in the form of 12 to 15 ft seas at 13 to 15 seconds, will propagate E into the far NW portion of the area Wed night and generally NW of a line from 30N122W to 15N140W by Thu night with seas subsiding to 8 to 12 FT.

$$ Cobb