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AXPZ20 KNHC 030247
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W/99W N OF 08N. NO SIGNFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W/105W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W/113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W/134W FROM 06N TO 15N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N85W TO 08N90W. THE ITCZ FROM 08N90W TO 08N112W TO 09N132W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 110W...1017 MB HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR 27N120W...REPLACING A WEAK LOW PRES ARE IN THIS AREA THAT HAS SINCE SHIFTED WEST. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED TO THE MORE TYPICAL NW DIRECTION OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW RELATED TO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS KEEPING THE REGION NEARLY CLOUD FREE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO WHERE A SMALL UPPER LOW...CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW...IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 FT BY EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY FRI AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WEST AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE.

S OF 15N E OF 120W...PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW STRONG GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF FONSECA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT NIGHT...WITH PULSES OF FRESH SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE AFTERNOON WESTWARD AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT. FRESH GAP WIND FLOW PERSIST INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AS WELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN PHASE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103/104W AND MAY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FROM PREVIOUS GAP WIND FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W WAS PREVIOUSLY ENHANCED BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SOUTH OF AN UPPER LOW...BUT HAS NOW ACTIVE INDEPENDENTLY OF THE UPPER SUPPORT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONSISTENT LOW NEAR 135W BY FRI. THE TRADE WINDS REMAIN WEAK DUE TO MODEST HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEPENING LOW PRES EXPECTED IN THE TROPICS LOCALIZED WINDS TO 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SEAS TO 8 FT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. LOOKING AHEAD...SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE ONE OR MORE OF THESE LOWS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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