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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 16N94W TO 14N94W TOWARD THE MONSOON TROUGH. MEANWHILE HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING SE ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET INDICATE THESE WINDS...WITH THE UKMET EVEN SHOWING 40 KT 10-M WINDS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 13N93W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N125W 1011 MB TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 30N133W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF 110W.

NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 110W WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 10 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY W OF 110W WITH THE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE COVERING THE WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 106W BY 48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING 30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W BY 48 HOURS WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N112W AND THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. UPPER TROUGHING W OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES AREAS AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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