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AXPZ20 KNHC 311605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC JUL 31....HURRICANE GUILLERMO NEAR 12.4N 132.7W 975 MB...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT GUSTS 100 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM E SEMICIRCLE...60 NM SW QUADRANT AND 90 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT...150 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 30 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM E AND 150 NM SW SEMICIRCLES WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. REMAINDER EPAC S OF 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS FOR GUILLERMO ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. GUILLERMO WILL REMAIN AS A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO AFTER REACHING 100 KNOTS. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A FINAL T-NUMBER OF 5.0 WITH AN EYE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN A 45 NM RADUIS OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG ALSO WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 09N TO 13N...WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N TO 15N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W/99W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD... MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N97W TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 03N80W TO 04N84W TO 05N86W TO 06N89W. TO 09N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N126W TO 18N110W. SEA HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AS FAR AS 17N FROM 135W WESTWARD. THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. 8-E. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS... THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO STARTS WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND THE WIND SPEEDS DO NOT REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SEA HEIGHTS STAY AT 8 FEET OR SO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE FALLING TO LESS THAN 8 FEET.

$$ MT

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