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AXPZ20 KNHC 051554
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN NEAR 23.6N 114.6W AT 1500 UTC SEP 5 MOVING N-NW OR 340 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. STRONG S- SW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...SO KEVIN WAS DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN SHOULD OPEN UP TO A TROUGH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. REFER TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N106W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 390 NM NE QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. THERE IS CURRENTLY A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 97W N OF 10N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 95W-100W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO 09N83W TO 11N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N106W TO 11N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF 05N E OF 81W...INCLUDING WITHIN THE GULF OF PANAMA.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT FOUND W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 10N140W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL SHRINK WESTWARD IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND AND CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS. SEAS OVER 8 FT IN SW SWELL CURRENTLY LIE S OF A LINE FROM 00N89W TO 24N128W TO 00N135W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WITHIN THIS SW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE...IS CURRENTLY REACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THIS SWELL WILL BRING DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS.

$$ SCHAUER

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