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AXPZ20 KNHC 201520
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N93W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N101W TO 05N111W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW NEAR 08N101W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF 120W DOMINATES NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS W CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA SUN AND MON WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS SW OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUN.

LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATED COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH MAX SEAS TO 15-17 FT NEAR 30N130W BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. LARGE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 7-8 FT EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION W OF 117W WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE THIS WEEKEND AND COVER MOST OF AREA W OF 105W BY MON MORNING.

A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED IN ITCZ NEAR 08N101W IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OCCASIONAL DEEP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE W THROUGH MON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.


...GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO 15-20 KT IS EXPECTED DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MON MORNING WITH PEAK WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT EARLY SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT AND WED WILL INDUCE VERY HIGH WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER EARLY WED MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALE WINDS ARE LIKELY WED THROUGH FRI. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT DIURNAL MAX LATE WED AND EARLY THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL SUPPORT FRESH NW WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUE MORNING...THEN BECOME STRONG TUE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS REGION TIGHTENS.

$$ MUNDELL

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