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AXPZ20 KNHC 011608
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 95W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 104W MOVING W 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 112W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 124W MOVING W 10-15 KT.

TROPICAL WAVE INVOF 135W MOVING W 10-15 KT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N87.5W TO 06N94.5W TO 05N108W TO 08N121W TO 08N136W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 04N80W TO 13N105W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...ASSOCIATED WITH SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES.


...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS N AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED LARGE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR 26N123W AND IS SHIFTING NW AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ELONGATED SE TO NW IN TIME...WITH A TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S THROUGH SW OF THE CYCLONE...FROM 12N-20N BEGINNING S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO ALONG 120W...TURNING SE BETWEEN 120W AND THE MEXICAN COAST. UPPER LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE TO THE S OF 12N IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE BETWEEN 115W AND 139W...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS CONVERGED DUE TO A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GENERALLY PREVAILS S OF THESE WESTERLIES...EXTENDING W TO E ALONG 10N-12N TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND REORGANIZE INTO A NARROW TROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...LEAVING VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 110W.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 48N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW AND ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A WEAK SECONDARY RIDGE SE TO NEAR 26N117W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE MAIN RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND W OF 127W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 7 FT. NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT PREVAIL ACROSS SW PORTIONS FROM 12N TO 14N W OF 138W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE ACROSS THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO PRODUCE PULSING GAP WINDS FROM NW COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM 10N TO 12.5N THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWIND TONIGHT TO AROUND 94-95W...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ALSO...LOOK FOR NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO PRODUCE PEAK N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT N OF 14.5N TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

$$ STRIPLING

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