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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040242
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0242 UTC Sun Dec 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough reaches from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure
near 09n89w to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N102W to 10N126W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 115W
and 125W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: A tight pressure gradient between strong high
pressure north of the area over the Great Basin and 1006 mb low
pressure over northern Mexico delivered winds to minimal gale
force over the northern portion of the Gulf of California earlier
today. Associated seas were estimated to be 8 to 11 ft over the
northern Gulf, north of Tiburon and Angel de la Guarda islands
near 29N. These winds have likely started to diminish below gale
force, and winds and seas will continue to diminish across the
Gulf of California through Sunday as the pressure gradient
relaxes.

Moderate to fresh north winds, with combined seas of 7 to 11 ft,
are currently observed across the Pacific waters west of the Baja
California Peninsula, while moderate to west to northwest flow is
noted elsewhere west of 105W. The pressure gradient will gradually
relax over the next few days, with a gentle to moderate n breeze
expected by Monday, as seas subside to 5 to 8 ft in northwest
swell.

Dynamics aloft related to the subtropical jet are supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 14N to the coast of
Mexico between 101W and 105W.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong northerly surge is expected
to begin late Wed night, with guidance suggesting minimal gale
conditions developing late on Thursday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal northeast
to east winds are expected to begin again late Tue night.

Light to gentle northerly winds are occurring elsewhere north of
the monsoon trough, while light to moderate southwest flow is
observed to the south of the monsoon trough. moderate to fresh
southerly breeze is forecast beyond 200 nm. Combined seas of 5
to 6 ft in the long-period southwest swell are noted within
this area.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is north of the area at 37N135W
with a ridge extending southeastward to 19N115W. The ridge is
supporting fresh trades over much of the area north of 10N and
west of 120W. Northwest swell with 8 to 10 ft seas cover this
same region as well. Winds and seas diminish through mid week as
the ridge weakens. Farther south...convergence of trade wind flow
along the ITCZ is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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