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AXPZ20 KNHC 242159
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Pilar is centered near near 20.8N 105.8W, or about 26 nm NNW of Cabo Corrientes Mexico, 1003 MB, at 2100 UTC moving N or 350 DEG at 7 KT. Maximum sustained winds 35 KT gusts 45 KT. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the coast of Mexico from 19.5N to 23.5N. Pilar is expected to slowly track toward the NNW to N through Tuesday night and move along or just offshore of the coastline. Interaction with land will lead to a gradual weakening of Pilar, and is expected to become a tropical depression by Mon afternoon and a remnant low center by Tue afternoon. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will be possible for Mexican states from Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night. See the latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to low pres near 14N93W 1008 MB...then resumes from near 14N108W to low pres near 14N124W to beyond 11.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 06.5N to the coast between 80W and 88W, and from 10.5N to 15n between 90W and 107W, and within 90 nm S of the trough axis between 108W and 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge building SE across the waters north of 25N will aid in freshening NW winds west of Baja California Norte this afternoon and tonight. Elsewhere, expect increasing winds and seas spreading northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of California as Tropical Storm Pilar slowly tracks NNW and weakens during the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection in coastal waters the next few days. Expect moderate SW to W winds to prevail south of the trough through Tuesday night. Farther south, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will persist south of 05N through Tuesday night. Long period southerly swell will decay and allow seas west of Ecuador and south of the Equator to subside from around 7 ft to around 6 ft during the next couple of days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area are producing 6 to 7 ft seas N of 24N between 116W and 125W. Seas in the area will continue to subside as the NW swell decay. Fresh to strong winds around low pres embedded in the monsoon trough near 14N124W are supporting a surrounding area of 8 to 10 ft seas in mixed swell. The low will shift to the ENE during the next few days. Otherwise, high pres centered well N of the area and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W through tonight. Low pressure passing north of the area will weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease during the second half of the week.

$$ Stripling

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