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AXPZ20 KNHC 210927
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KARINA CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 136.2W AT 21/0900 UTC MOVING ESE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT LATER TODAY THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NE THEN N THROUGH FRI. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAK THROUGH SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 121.9W AT 21/0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE SW QUADRANTS. LOWELL REMAINS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER. LOWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NW TONIGHT AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE THROUGH FRI. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N 94.5W 1007 MB MOVING SLOWLY W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS...AND A LARGE INTENSE CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE LOW HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94.5W TO 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH WNW OF THE AREA NEAR 40N143W TO 26N114W. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF LOWELL...AND SUPPORTS MODERATE WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF KARINA AND LOWELL INFLUENCE. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI AS LOWELL BUTTS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT IN FAR NW PORTION.

AN AREA OF MIXED SE AND SW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...AND NUDGE INTO FORECAST WATERS SOUTH OF 02S-03S W OF 100W.

$$ MUNDELL

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