000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120921
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 12 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DENSER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FUNNEL ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU MORNING...BRINGING WINDS
TO GALE FORCE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 02N85W TO 02N90W.
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N90W TO 01N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
...DISCUSSION...
BESIDES THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT...THE HIGH PRES THAT WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
INITIATE FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH ANOTHER PULSE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. SIMILARLY...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH THROUGH PANAMA FRI INTO SAT.
A LARGE PLUME OF SHORT PERIOD NE SWELL RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FT
GENERATED BY THE TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL MIX WITH LONGER PERIOD NW
SWELL OVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 105W BY
EARLY FRI. THIS WILL DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH FRI.
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW A BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WEAKENS.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH
INTERACTED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER GUATEMALA TO PRODUCE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N115W TO 00N105W IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS SETTING UP N OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET DIGGING SHARPLY TO THE
SOUTH ALONG 145W TO 10N. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
CREATING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 135W.
TRADE WIND FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE
DISPLACED WELL N OF THE AREA. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM WAVEWATCH III INITIALIZATIONS
SHOWING 6 TO 7 FT SEAS OVER A LARGE AREA W OF 110W. THIS IS THE
DECAYING REMNANTS OF NW SWELL THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO. GUIDANCE SHOWS A NEW TRAIN OF NW SWELL WILL PASS
30N140W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER REACHING AS FAR SE AS A LINE FROM 30N125W
TO 25N140W BY LATE TODAY...DECAYING TO LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH
THU.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N...PASSING E OF 120W BY SAT.
THIS WILL BE IN PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT CUTS
OFF NEAR 15N130W BY SAT. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THU
THROUGH SAT FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
BUILDS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. DESPITE HIGH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND WHILE THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION SOUTH OF 10N ALONG THE ITCZ...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
WESTERLY JET ALOFT WILL APPLY WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
