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AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1632 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED MAX WINDS AROUND 35 KT AS FAR AS 120 NM S-SW OF THE COAST. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RETURN FLOW. THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY SAT EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF 8- 10 FT SEAS IN COMBINED LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND NE SWELL FROM THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO SPAN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 03N TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 109W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUN AFTERNOON.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N90W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 122W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 116W.


...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 19N NORTHWARD AND FROM 116W EASTWARD...INCLUDING OVER NW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES. RADARS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BORDER W OF 105W. THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO MEXICO. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE A FAVORABLE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N132W THROUGH 32N132W...THEN SPLITS IN TWO WITH ONE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 18N117W AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SW THROUGH 25N140W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES S OF THESE RIDGE AXES OVER WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SHOULD LINGER OVER W WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DRIVING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUT A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PULSE TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO IS COMBINING WITH SEAS GENERATED FROM THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT THE SWELL FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SUBSIDE AND SHRINK EASTWARD AS THE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED AS FAR S AS 03N.

$$ SCHAUER

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