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AXPZ20 KNHC 142127
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 21.1N 108.9W 922 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 14 MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 330 NM S QUADRANT. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND ODILE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E NEAR 15.6N 113.4W 1006 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 14 MOVING E-NE OR 065 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM SW QUADRANT AND 75 NM NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SW AND W QUADRANTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY WHEN IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N94W 1007 MB IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NE.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 88W N OF 12N. IT HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST FROM 10N TO 15N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 14N99W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 14N 116W TO 11N123W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM NW AND 180 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 49N136W THROUGH 32N138W AND A 1014 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 25N135W TO 20N118W....BOOKENDED N OF THE AREA BY LOW PRES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND A DEEP LAYERED LOW AROUND 1000 NM NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT TO ITS S BETWEEN IT AND THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW MON INTO TUE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS.

$$ SCHAUER

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