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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290250
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.6N 131.0W AT 0300 UTC AUG 29...OR 875 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OF MARIE REMAINS WELL DEFINED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. THE WEAKENING TREND OF MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NW...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST- TROPICAL TONIGHT. A CONTINUED NW MOTION AND GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARIE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS LATE SAT MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING HIGH SURF...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15.5N92W TO 09N101W TO 12N116W... THEN RESUMES FROM 16N123W TO 10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 96.5W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S TO SE OF TROUGH W OF 125W.


...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...FADING REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE...AND DOMINATE THESE AREA WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH TIME.

1023 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N135W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 24N117W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WIND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ STRIPLING

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