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AXPZ20 KNHC 051527
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 04N103W TO 05N112W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N112W TO 07N120W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM N OF THIS ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF WEAK LOW PRES 1010 MB NEAR 04N103W.


...DISCUSSION...

FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N132W TO A BASE NEAR 24N134W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING WITH TIME. A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE S AND SE OF THE TROUGH AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A COUPLE OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NOTED...ONE CENTERED NEAR 11N109W AND ANOTHER NEAR 10N135W. AXIS OF 100-110 KT SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 21N140W AND CUTS THROUGH 25N120W...CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.

THE LARGE SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL HAS SUBSIDED TO 6-8 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO WED. ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS....20-22 SECONDS...IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EQUATOR LATE WED AND ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA BY EARLY FRI.

HIGH PRES NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N143W WILL BECOME STRONGER WED NIGHT AND THU WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN OVER THE TROPICS....LEADING TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 123W-135W WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 29N BETWEEN 120W-127W LATE TUE.

$$ COBB

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