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AXPZ20 KNHC 021507
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS W OF THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 142.5W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING A SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS FROM 17N TO 19N W OF 139W. LARGE SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A LARGE PORTION OF FORECAST WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N138W TO 21N134W TO 10N140W...WITH HIGHEST SEAS ESTIMATED AT 20 FT NEAR 18N140W. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO W OF THE FORECAST AREA. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHIFTING W OF 140W LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 115.0W AT 1500 UTC MOVING N 350 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SHEARED WITH CONVECTION E OF CENTER. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS FURTHER S FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W. THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH WEAKENING W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 12N95W TO 09N102W TO 10N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W... AND FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N154W EXTENDS RIDGE SE TO NEAR 25N120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 00N130W TO 06N120W TO 03.3S104W. BY FRI SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL BE FOUND S OF 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

$$ FORMOSA

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