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AXPZ20 KNHC 190331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 07N85W...THEN TURNS SW TO 07N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W TO 05N117W TO 07N130W AND CONTINUES BEYOND 05N140W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 77-127W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 126-133W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING S FROM 32N108W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 10N137W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N131W TO 21N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ENHANCED SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N127W TO 17N112W. A DENSE TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N127W TO 23N107W CONTINUING NE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCING THE PLUME.

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 00N105W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS QUICKLY E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE ON FRI-SAT. ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI AND NEAR 30N128W ON SAT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-17N W OF 130W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON.

$$ NELSON

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