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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310945
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 0900 UTC JUL 31...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR 11.5N 130.6W OR ABOUT 1575 MI W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1720 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO WAS MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 14 KT. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOME AS RIDGING TO ITS N STRENGTHENS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING NOW OBSERVED IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION BURSTS INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM N AND 150 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. AN EYE IS APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 42 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 08N98W TO 16.5N95W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE IF A LINE FROM 12N90W TO 16N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 05-14N ALONG ABOUT 110W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 12 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE S OF 10N WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N84W TO 07.5N91.5W THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08.5N97W...THEN TURNS SW TO 05N114W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY.

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF 04N79W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LIEN FROM 03N82W TO 11N88W...AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 04.5N91W.


.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 99-101W AND FROM 19-22.5N


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 15N105W. A SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 136-140W AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8-E WHICH MOVED W OF 140W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF 140W LATER TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 28N125W TONIGHT WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-6 FT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT ON SAT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 7-8 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 06N BETWEEN 95-130W TODAY AND CONTINUE N REACHING ALONG 10N ON SUN.

GAP WINDS... EXPECT THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE TO BRIEFLY REACH 25 KT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS MORNINGS EVENT WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 09N BETWEEN 86-100W THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING THEN SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT AN AREA OF 6-8 FT SEAS TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE EACH MORNING. ALSO EXPECT NORTHERLY 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT RESULTING IN A SMALL AREA OF 6-8 FT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC ON SAT MORNING.

$$ NELSON

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