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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301546
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 09N83W TO 09N98W TO 06N110W TO 07N115W TO 07N119W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 02N122W TO 10N122W. THE ITCZ AXIS STRETCHES FROM 05N124W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N80W TO 06N89W TO10N97W TO 07N110W TO 09N120W.


...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB IS ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 42N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 17N113E. LATEST ASCAT IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS JUST W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE WINDS HAVE GENERATED 10-11 FT NW SWELL WHICH CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE W COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA COAST BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY.

THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES BETWEEN 05N AND 25N W OF 120W HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA WEAKENS. SW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE REGION THAT ORIGINATED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO DISPERSE. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH FILLS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MON...THEN CONTINUE SE AND DISSIPATE BY THU. FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL. EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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$$ MCELROY

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