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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050234
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED AUG 5 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N125W WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POOR ORGANIZATION TO THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES W AT 10- 15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W FROM 08N-17N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BOUNDARY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 09N86W TO 06N97W TO 08N108W TO 09N116W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF BOUNDARY BETWEEN 121W AND 133W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FROM 30N136W TO 20N112W. THE RIDGE N OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 12N125W IS ENHANCING EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1800 UTC SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT NE WINDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 130W-136W. ALTIMETER DATA INDICATES SEAS TO 7-8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING 20 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N WITHIN 300 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. DIURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25 KT IN THE MORNING...PRODUCING 8-9 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WEAKER FLOW IS EXPECTED BY 24 HRS WED NIGHT.

$$ MUNDELL

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