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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300933
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0930 UTC Sun Apr 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough axis extends from 09N77W TO 10N90W TO 07N104W, where The ITCZ begins and extends to 04N114W to 04N130W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 02N to 10N east of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of either side of the trough and ITCZ between 91W and 127W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate northwest winds cover the waters west of Baja California, with northwesterly swell of 6 to 8 ft. The swell will diminish today, leaving the area with seas of 5 to 7 ft through mid week.

Gulf of California: Strong northwest winds over the central Gulf in the wake of a cold front will diminish through this morning. Seas near 7 ft over the central Gulf waters will quickly subside to 3 to 4 ft today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere over the Gulf through the forecast period.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle to moderate southerly flow is expected to continue through the remainder of this weekend with fresh north winds possible near daybreak on Monday. A stronger gap event is expected to begin on Friday, with gale force winds possible late Friday and Friday night.

Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail with seas primarily between 5 to 7 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The combination of a surface trough and supper level diffluence over the region supports clusters of thunderstorms across the region, including over the coastal sections. This persistent thunderstorm activity may cause localized flooding over prone areas the next day or two. Mainly gentle winds are expected during the next several days, becoming offshore along the coasts at night. Long period southwest swell of 5 to 7 ft will persist over the waters through early next week, possibly reaching 8 ft offshore Ecuador by mid week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1032 mb high pressure system remains just north of the area centered near 37N135W, with a ridge extending southeastward to near 15N110W. This high pressure system covers the area north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Mainly moderate to fresh northeast trades are expected between the ridge and the ITCZ the next several days, with seas of 6 to 7 ft in mixed northeast and southwest swell. Late this week, a cold front may bring strong northwest winds to the northern waters. Southern hemispheric SW swell will propagate across the waters south of 05N between 95W and 125W tonight and Monday, resulting in seas to 8 ft. Additional southern hemispheric swell to 8 ft will pass north of the Equator between 90W and 110W on Wednesday.

$$ LATTO

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