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AXPZ20 KNHC 202146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 04.5N79W THEN TURNS NW TO 07N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW TO 04N126W TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N83W TO 05N88W TO 04N98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 05N128W AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 02N104W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 10N127W. A 420 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADING NE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 20N105W AND ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N TO THE W OF 126W...WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING E ACROSS THE THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 36N. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 480 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N113W TO 22N140W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION OVER THE WESTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 127W. AN ILL-DEFINED LOW- MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 16N116W TO 09N125W WITH CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES INTO THE TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 15N97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N97W TO 11N102W TO 13N107W.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N94W. WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 82-96W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF 115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL BE REINFORCED BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 22N140W. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON... AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.

$$ NELSON

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