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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252142
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

There is no ITCZ or monsoon trough currently over the discussion
waters, however a surface trough and active convection is
located just south of the equator from 03S to 04S between 94W
and 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent ship observations and satellite derived wind data
indicate moderate northwest to north winds occurring off the
coast of the Baja California peninsula, and extend southeastward
to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between a
1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N124W and lower pressure
across interior Mexico has weakened slightly today, causing a
very modest decrease in winds across the region. Lingering
northwest swell across the waters is producing seas of 4 to 7 ft
and are expected to subside 1 to 2 ft through the remainder of
the weekend.

Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the southern
portions of the Gulf of California with seas 6-8 ft across the
waters near Los Cabos this afternoon. Winds and seas over the
Gulf will diminish tonight as high pressure builds over the
region. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds are possible
tonight into the northern Gulf of California, related to a weak
frontal boundary moving across the southern U.S. Rockies. A
brief pulse of fresh to strong northerly flow is possible
tonight in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec with nocturnal
drainage flow. Otherwise, the high pressure will maintain
moderate winds and slight seas through early next week.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move into Baja California
and the northern Gulf of California Monday night into Tuesday,
but the passage is expected to occur with little change in winds
and seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the offshore waters
of the eastern Tropical Pacific extending northeast into the
western Caribbean. This is producing light to gentle breezes
almost area wide this afternoon. Strengthening trade winds
across the southwest Caribbean will support fresh to strong gap
winds into the Gulf of Papagayo starting late Sunday night into
early Monday, with nocturnal pulsing of the winds expected
through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh
northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to
gentle breezes will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong southerly winds are noted north of 28N ahead of a cold
moving across the northwest corner of the discussion area, from
30N134W to beyond 25N140W. Morning altimeter data indicated seas
of 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell over much of the discussion
area north of 22N and west of 131W. The winds ahead of the front
will diminish through this evening as the front drags eastward
across the NW waters. Seas just ahead and behind the front will
remain 8 to 10 ft through this evening, but will decrease in
coverage from east to west. By Sunday afternoon, the front will
reach from 30N129W to 21N140W while weakening. While the ridge
building behind the front will allow winds to diminish north of
20N, it will support fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N west of
130W, which in turn will support seas to 8 ft combined as local
wind waves combine with fading northwest swell Sunday into
Monday. Otherwise, little change is expected through early in
the upcoming week.

$$
Stripling

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