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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
008 UTC Sun Aug 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is near 16.2N 125.3W at 20/0300 UTC, moving W, or 280 degrees, at 15 kt, with estimated minimum central pressure of 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently observed within 90 nm southeast and 30 nm northwest semicircles of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 123W and 127W. Kenneth is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by Sun morning. Refer to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.


..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W north of 09N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 101W and 107W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 09N97W to 09N104W to 08N116W, where it loses identity. It resumes from 13N127W to 11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection was noted from 07N to 12N east of 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 11N between 92W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough west of 132W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California through the middle of next week with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A surface ridge extends across the western waters. This synoptic setup will result in a moderate NW breeze through the middle of next week across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas forecast throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will persist across the Gulf of California through early next week, except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will surround the low pressure center that will develop intermittently over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight and then a brief strong surge is expected late Sun night with seas building briefly to 8 ft around sunrise on Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through early next week.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb centered near 41N137W extends a ridge southeast to near 22N113W. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Kenneth, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

$$ AL

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