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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON SEP 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.9N 113.2W AT 22/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS 45 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 114W-117W. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N95W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 95W-98W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 11N95W TO 9N104W TO 6N117W THEN RESUMES NEAR 11N123W TO 10N132W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ALONG COAST OF MEXICO AND W GUATEMALA BETWEEN 91W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 85W-86W AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N- 11N BETWEEN 98W-106W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER N MEXICO COVERING THE AREA E OF 120W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER POLO AND EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA W OF TROPICAL STORM POLO N OF 13N W OF 120W.

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N138W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO 19N121W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY MON THEN DISSIPATE LATE MON/EARLY TUE.

$$ PAW

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