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AXPZ20 KNHC 222038
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE KARINA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 1164 E OF HILO HAWAII...MOVING NE OR 050 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM IN THE S QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 103.5W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 339 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE AND 300 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W... AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 124.7W AT 22/2100 UTC...ABOUT 821 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 120 AND 240 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 10N95W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 90W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 09N108W TO 06N119W...AND WITHIN 120 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 14N112W TO 06N117W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 40N145W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR ORANGE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS W OF 110W OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCES OF KARINA AND LOWELL. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AS LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AGAINST THE RIDGE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS DEVELOPING AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION WELL AWAY FROM LOWELL.

$$ LEWITSKY

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