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AXPZ20 KNHC 060956
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO STRONG N WINDS LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON SAT AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO STRONG AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N93W TO 08N111W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N95W TO 07N102W...WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N107W TO 10N113W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N124W 04N135W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...

ELSEWHERE...A COLD IS WEAKENING FROM 32N116W TO 27N116W. A W TO E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM NEAR 21N120W TO BEYOND 15N108W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH-W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN MIXING LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE AND THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY MIDDAY ON SAT. EXPECT GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE PAC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 3-5 FT SEAS.

STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30-31N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SAT. EXPECT THE SW FLOW TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT ON SAT NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSION. STRONG E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND MODERATE S FLOW EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 32N140W TO 21N120W. STRONG N WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 124-131W WITH FRESH N WINDS NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF 25N BETWEEN 120-136W. LARGE NW SWELL MIXES WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8- 12 FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE ITCZ BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND SHIFT.

$$ NELSON

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