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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292203
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC Thu Sep 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Ulika is centered near 17.2N 140.2W 1006 mb at
2100 UTC moving NW or 305 DEG at 7 kt. The maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Ulika remains under
significant vertical westerly shear attributed to an upper trough
that is just to its west. Abundant dry air aloft west of the
trough is being entrained into the cyclone as observed in water
vapor imagery. Latest satellite imagery shows diminishing scattered
moderate convection well removed from the cyclone between 60 nm to
120 nm to its northeast. Minimal tropical storm winds are within
30 nm in the east semicircle and 20 nm in the northwest quadrant
of the cyclone. Ulika continues to experience SW wind shear and
is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression late tonight west
of the area near 17.7N 141.W, and a post-tropical remnant low
early Friday afternoon near 18.3N 142.9W. Refer to the latest CPHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers WTPA22 PHFO/TCMCP2, or
visit the CPHC website at http:www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ for
additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
10N85W to 09N94W to 12N107W where it ends. It resumes at
10N116W to 09N124W to 14N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 120 nm north of the axis
between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is within
60 nm s of the axis between 103W and 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Post-tropical remnant low of Roslyn is centered near 24.1N 115.6W
1014 mb moving N NW at 6 kt. Visible satellite imagery depicts the
low as a cloud swirl consisting of mainly low clouds about 120 nm
in diameter. Associated winds continue to diminish with only
20 to 25 kt with seas of 6 to 8 ft remaining within 30 nm of the
low in the northeast quadrant of the low. The low is forecast to
gradually dissipate through Friday afternoon.

Otherwise, a sub-tropical northwest to southeast oriented ridge
axis extends into the area from 32N136W to near 24N131W. High
pressure covers the area north of 22N west of 123W. Light to
gentle northerly winds are present west of the Baja California
Peninsula with seas 4-5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. The ridge
will strengthen and build southeastward through the next 48 hours.
The associated gradient is expected to result in a moderate to
fresh northwest flow. Seas will build to 6 to 8 ft over the far
northern waters west of Baja California Norte on Saturday
evening, and continue into Sunday.

Light and variable winds are expected through the weekend across
the northern Gulf of California, and light to gentle nw-n flow
is expected elsewhere. Winds will increase through mid week as
the ridge builds into the region.

A high amplitude surface trough analyzed along 108W from 13N
to 22N is forecast to drift westward over the next couple of
days. Deep convection continues to be very active in an inverted-v
shape pattern. The convection is of the scattered strong type
intensity from 13N to 22N between the trough and 112W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N
between 102W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from
09N to 13N between 112W and 114W.

Fresh to strong drainage flow that occurred through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in the overnight hours will again pulse up and
down through the weekend, peaking near 25-30 kt with seas of 8-10
ft late at night through daybreak.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southerly winds are expected n of the monsoon
trough, while gentle to locally moderate s to SW flow is
expected s of the monsoon trough through the upcoming weekend.
Combined seas of 4 to 7 ft, primarily in long-period SW swell is
expected across the offshore waters through the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As tropical cyclone Ulika moves w of 140W tonight and the
remnant low of Roslyn dissipates through Friday afternoon, the
pressure gradient will tighten around the subtropical ridge, with
moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds expected between the monsoon
trough/ITCZ and the ridge through Sunday, with combined seas
around the range of 5 to 7 ft.

$$
AGUIRRE

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