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AXPZ20 KNHC 030924
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N85W TO 08N100W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 06N120W TO 05N130W TO BEYOND 04N140W. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 133W AND 136W.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W. A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. A 1015 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 33N132W AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-SE TO A POSITION NEAR 32N128W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND A 1034 MB HIGH PRES THAT FOLLOWS THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 10-11 FT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N129W TO 25N134W TO 23N140W TONIGHT... AND FROM 30N123W TO 21N130W TO 19N140W WED NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 125W THROUGH AT LEAST THU.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE W COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN MICHOACAN AND JALISCO. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ HAS DECREASED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NW WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N REBUILDS...EXPECT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY FRI.

LOOKING AHEAD...A LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WILL LIKELY BE INDUCED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY THU EVENING. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE...30-35 KT...THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 11-12 FT WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FINAL GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OCCURS IN THE GULF IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT IN 1999...ONLY THREE GALE FORCE WIND EVENTS...WINDS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MONTH OF MAY.

$$ GR

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