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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152148
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ODILE NEAR 25.5N 111.8W 975 MB AT 2100 UTC SEP 15 MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 19N110W ARE MOVING NE 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE NEAR 10N97W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER... EXCEPT 180 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 104W.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 94W N OF 11N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 330 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 11N.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 13N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N97W 1007 MB TO 16N107W TO 11N126W TO 12N132W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W 1009 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 13N W OF 133W AND S OF THE AXIS TO 07N W OF 136W.


...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N138W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N123W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A LOW PRES SYSTEM JUST NW OF THE AREA THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 32N139W THROUGH 30N140W TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. THE 1844 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE...BUT SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WED AFTERNOON.

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEAS OVER 8 FT HAVE MERGED WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS AND THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$ SCHAUER

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