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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171608 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CORRECTED POLO INFORMATION

TROPICAL STORM POLO NEAR 15.7N 102.4W 998 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 17 MOVING NW 315 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NW PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION NE OF POLO WILL AFFECT COASTAL MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THU...WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE NEAR 30.6N 113.3W 997 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 17 MOVING NE 035 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ODILE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES N-NE INLAND OVER NW MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N87W TO 10N96W... THEN RESUMES FROM 13N107W TO 13N114W TO 11N124W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N124W TO 14N135W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N140W 1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT AS IT MIXES WITH BROAD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT LATE THU.

AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND CLYCLOGENEIS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED W-SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OTHER THAN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF TC POLO.

$$ MUNDELL

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