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AXPZ20 KNHC 272332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2030 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 15.6N 126.1W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 27 MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E AND S QUADRANTS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TUE. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 107W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N- 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N117W TO 07N113W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-11N.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 131W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N134W TO 05N131W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 07N94W TO 09N103W TO 07N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-10N W OF A LINE FROM 02N89W TO 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-122W. IN THE CONVERGENCE REGION OVER W WATERS.... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N- 12N W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N140W EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N125W TO 18N113W. THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA WERE ANALYZED AS A TROUGH FROM 22N128W TO 25N127W. WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE REMNANTS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DROPPED BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

THE RIDGE HAS BUILT E OF THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ACROSS NE WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF TRADES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW TOWARD THE AREA...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 132W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$ SCHAUER

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