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AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 08N78W THEN MOSTLY OVERLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO GUATEMALA NEAR 14N90W THEN TO 10N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH AND 120 NM BETWEEN 120W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT SW FLOW INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC N OF 06N AND EAST OF 100W.

FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND THU OVER NE MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY IN THE SW GULF HEADING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LEAD TO STRONG GAP WINDS PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A SECOND REINFORCING GAP WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE PERSIST GAP FLOW WILL ALLOW SHORT PERIOD N AND NE SEAS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT TO REACH AS FAR TO THE S AND SW AS 500 NM SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT MORNING...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER WEST...1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N135W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 110W. THE MAIN MARINE ISSUE IS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING 8 TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 120W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH SW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY DECAYS BELOW 8 FT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT REACHING AS FAR AS 30N130W TO 27N140W BY LATE FRI. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER 20N145W IS SUPPORTING PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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