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AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 130.4W AT 2100 UTC AUG 28...OR 825 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. THE BROAD LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OF MARIE IS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT. THE WEAKENING TREND OF MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NW...AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT. A CONTINUED NW MOTION AND GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARIE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS LATE SAT MORNING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING SURF...VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 12N96W TO 11N114W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N125W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W...AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S TO SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...FADING REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE...AND DOMINATE THESE AREA WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO THE NW WITH TIME.

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 26N117W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-NW WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ STRIPLING

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