AXPZ20 KNHC 242213
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1450 UTC Sun Jul 24 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Hurricane Georgette is centered at 15.7N 125.4W at 2100 UTC,
moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 kt. Maximum sustained
winds have increased to 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure has dropped to 972 mb. An eye has
become apparent in the past couple of hours per satellite
imagery, and reflects the recent intensification. Scattered to
numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm of
the center. Georgette is expected to continue moving northwest
during the next few of days, and has a chance to strengthen a
bit further tonight before reaching cooler waters Monday that
will induce a gradual weakening trend. Refer to the latest NHC
forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
for more details.
Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 20.0N 112.8W at 2100 UTC, or
about 240 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Frank is moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 5 kt. Maximum
sustained winds have increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt
while estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Frank has
slowed down this afternoon with the center attempting to shift
underneath the strongest convection. This in combination with a
modest decrease in upper level northeasterly wind shear, has
allowed Frank to intensify slightly, and there is a good chance
further intensification tonight will allow Frank to become a
hurricane. Frank will continue moving west-northwest over the
next few days and gradually weaken to a tropical storm before
becoming a post-tropical remnant low on Thu. Large southerly
swell from Frank continues to impact the southern coast of Baja
California Sur and south portions of the Gulf of California this
afternoon, which will gradually shift northward into central
portions of the Baja Peninsula Monday. This will generate rough
and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.
Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.
A weakening tropical wave north of 09N is along about 105W this
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection associated
with the wave is present mainly near the monsoon trough.
A second tropical wave north of 10N is along 93W/94W and
contributing to widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
convection across this area. This wave will shift to the west
across the Tehuantepec region and the adjacent near and offshore
coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 09N74W to 07N81W to 09N94W
to 07.5N108W to 08N110W. The ITCZ extends from 11.5N126W to
beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
convection is present from 05N to 09.5N east of 89W, and
northof11N between 90W and 97W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is also noted within 90 nm north and 150 nm
south of the ITCZ between 126W and 140W.
North of 15N and east of 120W:
Tropical Storm Frank continues to move slowly west-northwest
away from Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands, with winds and
seas gradually improving. However bands of moderate to strong
convection occurring across the southeast side of Frank persist
across the islands this afternoon. Southerly swell associated
with Frank has been impacting the area between the southern
entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San Lucas and
Cabo Corrientes, and has shifted north and northeast and spread
inside southern portions of the Gulf of California. Offshore
seas of 6 to 10 ft are presently occurring across this area.
Seas of 8 to 12 ft will spread over the Pacific offshore waters
off Baja California Sur through early Monday, away from the
immediate vicinity of Frank. This will maintain rough and
hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and
produce large and powerful surf along the exposed coastal areas
of Baja California Sur and western Mexico. Large waves and very
strong rip currents will dominate these coastlines throughout
the weekend. As Frank moves NW Monday and Tuesday, it will
encounter cooler waters and begin to gradually weaken over the
A relatively deep 1003 mb low was analyzed on the 1200 UTC
surface map this morning over the lower Colorado River valley,
with a surface trough reaching though the northern Gulf of
California. This supported moderate to fresh southerly flow
across the far northern Gulf of California earlier. This has
diminished during the day, and only light to moderate southerly
flow is anticipated over the next several days across the
central and north portions of the Gulf of California.
Northerly swell related to strong winds of California are pushing
south and will mix with southerly swell generated from Frank off
the Baja California Norte coast through the next couple of days.
South of 15N and east of 120W:
Moderate to locally fresh east winds are expected across and just
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight hours
during the next several days. The winds will be augmented by
nocturnal drainage flow.
West of 120W:
High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase in
trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms north of a newly
formed ITCZ boundary. The track of Georgette will weaken the ridge
again however over the the next couple of days, allowing trade
winds to diminish.
Swell generated from Georgette, and soon Frank as it crosses west
of 120W Tuesday night, will interact with northerly swell
generated from strong winds off California. Northerly swell to 9
ft will propagate into the waters west of 120W and north of 24N
into mid week.