Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 02 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N100W TO 07N117.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 09N123W TO 05N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS W OF THE TROUGH FROM 05N128W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 113W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY N OF 04N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS SW U.S. IS GENERATING A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS JUST W OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL. EXPECT FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION FROM 07N TO 10N AND W OF 138W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A MIXED SWELL. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY LATE MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 10 FT GENERATED ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COASTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRIGGERING A NEAR GALE FORCE TEHUANTEPEC SURGE BY THURSDAY.

$$

ERA

Home