000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260242
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 26 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N90W
1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N107W 1009 MB TO 09N121W. ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 09N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE FAR PACIFIC NW
SECTION OF THE U.S. SW THROUGH 32N135W TO A RECENTLY FORMED
UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD NEAR 28N136W. TO ITS SE...BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED AT 16N115W
COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH JUST EXITED THE AREA TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE WRN MOST TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE IS
ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD TO ACROSS THE
FAR WRN AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION WITH A
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS SRN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA WITHIN THE AREA OF BROAD ANTICYCLONE
FLOW MAINTAINING RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THAT
PORTION OF THE AREA AS NOTED BY THE FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMLUS CLOUDS PRESENT TO THE N OF 13N BETWEEN 115W AND
120W...AND ALSO UNDERNEATH THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING NEWD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA WILL TRANSLATED EWD TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY
MON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW SHEARING OFF TO SW OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
FEATURES.
OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH ITS
BROAD ENVELOP OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA TO THE N OF
10N AND E OF ABOUT 106W. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC SHIELD. AT THE
SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS WITHIN THIS SAME PORTION OF THE AREA...
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PRESENT ALOFT...HOWEVER POCKETS OF DRY AIR ARE IDENTIFIED AS
WELL IN BETWEEN THE ACTIVITY...AND MAY HAVE LEAD TO THE RECENT
DISSIPATION OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY DURING THE RECENT HOURS. THE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SWWD TO NEAR 05N WHERE IT
ENCOUNTERS DRY ALOFT AND AS A RESULT DISSIPATES.
AS DESCRIBED UNDER THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION...THERE ARE
PRESENTLY TWO LOW PRES FEATURES IDENTIFIED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE FIRST AT 12N90W WITH A PRES OF 1010 MB
...AND THE SECOND ONE AT 10N107W WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB. THE LOW
NEAR 10N107W HAS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF ITS CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VIVIDLY DISPLAYING SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE N AND NE OF THE FIRST LOW WITHIN 45 NM OF A
LINE FROM 12N87W TO 14N93W. THESE LOWS AS WELL AS THE
SURROUNDING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN
NATURE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THERE LOWS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SEE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR PROBABILITY
CONDITIONS RELATING TO THESE LOW PRES FEATURES.
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1032 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NW OF THE
AREA AT 34N143W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH 32N133W AND
TO NEAR 21N116W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1742 UTC SAT AFTERNOON
REVEALED NE TRADES OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 21N
AND W OF 122W WITH SEAS THERE TO 9 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO N OF 23N BETWEEN 116W AND 121W BY MON
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS THERE TO 9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL.
LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS AT 16-18 SECONDS DOMINATE
MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 115W...WHILE LONG PERIOD NW
SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PORTION. THESE SWELLS ARE
FORECAST TO MERGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS THROUGH
MON NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION ARE
CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE FORECAST TO AROUND 8 FT SUN TO
BEFORE A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS BEGINS TO ELEVATE SEAS THERE AGAIN
TO POSSIBLY 10 FT BY LATE MON.
$$
AGUIRRE
