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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220351
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N77W TO 07N86W TO 06N95W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 07N111W WITH THE ITCZ THEN CONTINUING W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO 06N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N107W TO 07N120W AND FROM 07N131W TO 09N140W. THE EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 12N110W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N111W TO 16N103W.


...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT 15N118W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS NW MEXICO. ANOTHER BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED FURTHER N AND NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 116-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 330 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N140W TO 10N120W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN TURNING NE AND FANNING OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N132W TO 17N107W. THE GRADIENT IS MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118-126W THROUGH TUE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-14 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 07-19N W OF 120W. THE GRADIENT IS ALREADY RELAXING AND THE AREA OF 20-25 KT CONDITIONS WILL SHRINK TONIGHT AND MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICS ON MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE CURRENT 7-10 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT ON MON AND MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON TUE...SPREADING SW TO NEAR 27N117W ON TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT ON WED MORNING... THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO STRONG GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO NEAR STORM STRENGTH WED NIGHT. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END ON THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN ONLY 10-15 KT DRAINAGE FLOW ON TUE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BRIEF 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON WED NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF 20-25 KT EVENT ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SW AS 08N92W LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT EXCEPT 10-15 KT CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATE MON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH 20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH WATERS NEAR 29N BY TUE EVENING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED WITH 15-20 KT FLOW ON WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW ON THU.

$$ NELSON

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