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AXPZ20 KNHC 090331
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS COLLAPSED THIS EVENING...AND IS GRADUALLY BEING REPLACED BY A NEW 1030 MB HIGH SHIFTING S ACROSS W TEXAS. THIS NEW HIGH WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH TUE AND REINFORCE THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STORM FORCE TONIGHT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO STRONG GALES TO 45 KT LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH 50 KT AGAIN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MAXIMUM SEAS WITH EACH OF THESE NIGHT TIME PULSES OF WIND WILL BUILD TO 20-22 FT. EXPECT STRONG GALES TO AT LEAST 40 KT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE NE SWELL EXTENDING FAR BEYOND ITS SOURCE REGION THAT WILL MERGE WITH SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT TO CREATE HIGH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT EXTENDING WELL BEYOND 110W THROUGH FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG E-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAPS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ACCELERATE DOWNWIND ACROSS PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS TIGHT AND IS PRODUCING ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OF 20 TO 30 KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO AREA AND DOWNWIND SOME 150-180 NM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NE WINDS OF20- 25 KT WITH BRIEF PERIODS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA. THIS PROLONGED STRONG GAP WIND EVENT IS GENERATING A VERY LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SEAS THAT WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 88W-110W FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N86W TO 04N100W TO 05.5N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 136W.


...DISCUSSION... A SLOWLY WEAKENING RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS GENERALLY W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER PRES NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...WHERE MAX SEAS ARE 7-8 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE NW WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT LATE TUE AND TO 10-15 KT BY WED AFTERNOON.

THE PRES GRADIENT S OF THE E PACIFIC HIGH IS ALSO MAINTAINING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 13N GENERALLY W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE 9-11 FT. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 13N W OF 110W. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA REMAIN AT 20-25 KT N OF 29N...WHERE NW SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS 8-12 FT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN IN FAR NW PORTION FROM 30N132W TO 19N140W ON TUE...WITH STRONG S TO SW WINDS MEANDERING ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA.

FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA SOUTHWARD TO ALONG 02N-04N THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH MAX SEAS TO 8-11 FT. A SMALL AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE WATERS S-SE OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$ STRIPLING

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