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AXPZ20 KNHC 212045
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 22.3N 112.1W AT 21/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 125 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 113W-116W. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N94W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 94W-97W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FRONT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N84W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N94W TO 10N103W ALONG 7N114W TO 10N131W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 83W-89W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 96W-103W...AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 106W- 108W.


...DISCUSSION...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE AREA W OF TROPICAL STORM POLO N OF 26N W OF 115W AND FROM 13N-26N W OF 120W.

A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N136W WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO 20N123W. THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE NE-E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF 120W TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY MON THEN DISSIPATE LATE MON/EARLY TUE.

$$ PAW

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