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AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM VANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 9.5N 101.8W OR ABOUT 455 NM...850 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AT 01/0300 UTC MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ALTHOUGH VANCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND VANCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE SUNDAY. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH VANCE HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AT TIMES. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM W OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 20-30 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE THIS EVENING...REACHING 40 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 12-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THIS GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUN MORNING AND WILL LIKELY BE THE SECOND GALE FORCE EVENT OF THE COLD SEASON 2014-2015.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 09N90W TO 10N98W...THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. VANCE FROM 09N105W TO 07N110W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 12N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 85W AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRES AREA HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12N122W OR ABOUT 920 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS ONLY A LOW CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IS ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW PRES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N123W TO 23N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER SCATTEROMETER DATA. A SET OF NW SWELL FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AS HIGH AS 12 FT. THIS SWELL EVENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MIXING WITH NE WIND WAVES GENERATING BY THE TRADE WIND FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE EARLY SAT...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER N WATERS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS FROM 11N-25N W OF 130W BY LATE SAT.

EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY SUN AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO COVER THE AREA FROM 09N TO 11N W OF 90W BY EARLY MON WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT.

$$ GR

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