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AXPZ20 KNHC 241547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W OR W-NW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 129W/130W.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 98W N OF 09N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 09N TO 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE ONE ALONG 98W...PARTICULARLY FROM 09N TO 15N.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N120W TO 11N123W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 09N104W TO 10N114W TO 14N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N130W 1007 MB TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 80W AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W AND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 130W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N132W TO 18N135W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY W OF 130W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N116W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 11N112W. A DIFFUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT INTO FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE .

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N130W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.

A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM HAS DEVELOPED FROM 21N TO 25.5W BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOVING WWD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$ GR

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