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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Pilar is located near 18.7N 105.3W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC moving N or 360 DEG at 4 KT. Maximum sustained winds 35 KT gusts 45 KT. Pilar is expected to gradually strengthen to 50 kt during the next 24 hours as it moves N along the Mexican coast of Jalisco, and then over or just E of Las Tres Marias on Monday. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides will be possible along these coastal states from Colima to Nayarit through Monday afternoon, and could extent well inland. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches across most of the basin from northern Colombia near 09N74W TO 10N84W TO 17N103W...then resumes from near 15N109W to low pres near 12.5N127W 1009 MB to low pres near 12.5N139W 1009 MB to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 06N TO 10N between 79W AND 91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found from 10.5N TO 16N between 95W AND 110W, and from 09.5N TO 12.5N between 126W AND 138W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front has dissipated across the central Gulf of California and Baja California to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro this afternoon. High pressure building north of 25N behind the dissipated front will aid in freshening NW winds west of Baja California Norte tonight through Sun. Elsewhere, expect increasing winds and seas near and to the SW of Tropical Storm Pilar spreading northwestward from near Cabo Corrientes to the southern Gulf of California during the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An active monsoon trough near the coast of Central America from Guatemala to Panama will remain the focus for active convection in coastal waters the next few days. Expect SW winds south of the trough remain moderate to fresh this weekend. Farther south, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will persist south of 05N through Monday. Long period SE swell from the Southern Hemisphere will maintain seas west of Ecuador and south of the Equator around 7 ft through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell generated by strong winds north of the area is producing 7-9 ft seas N of 30N between 116W and 123W. Low pres near 12.5N139W will move west of the discussion area Sunday. High pres centered well N of the area and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds W of 120W through Mon. Low pres passing north of the area will weaken the high, allowing trades to decrease later in the week.

$$ Stripling

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