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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070242
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRES 1005 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 12N134W...OR ABOUT 1260 NM ESE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...AND IS MOVING NW AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE E AND 240 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W...AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 138W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 8-12 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 540 NM IN THE N QUADRANT AND 420 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 08N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 05N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF A LINE FROM 08N78W TO 05N82W TO 08N86W...AND FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W.

IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...AND ALSO FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W WITH THESE AREAS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.


...DISCUSSION...

WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N127W EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 21N...W OF 116W. MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE N OF 21N W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE.

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WILL PROPAGATE OFF TO THE W-SW AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SW SWELL IS SNEAKING N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PROPAGATE TO THE N-NE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN WED NIGHT AND THIS SETUP COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU.

$$ LEWITSKY

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