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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230318
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 08N94W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W 1008 MB TO 07N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 126W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W THROUGH SOCORRO ISLAND TO NEAR 15N105W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM 09N-22N W OF 125W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TO 15N123W TO 10N128W BY SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 22N W OF 130W AT THE MOMENT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 360 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N121W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES NEAR THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND THROUGH CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS PULLING E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL MOTION. THE AREA OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING THE DEEP CONVECTION FOUND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 121W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE SAN LUIS OBISPO CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT

$$ SCHAUER

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