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AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N115W 11N115W 07N113W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD SHOWS AN INVERTED V- SHAPE PATTERN...AS TYPICALLY SEEN WITH ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM ALONG THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE TRACK FOR THIS FEATURE WILL BE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ALONG THE WAVE/POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 112W AND 116W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 09N87W TO 08N94W TO 11N112W TO 11N117W TO 07N130W TO 08N139W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W...AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W AND 132W.


...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 21N140W TO 21N130W TO 21N116W BEYOND 25N112W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 40N135W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 32N144W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 09N121W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N120W TO 16N119W. THIS TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 16N115W 07N113W TROPICAL WAVE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 09N122W TO 13N123W TO 21N116W BEYOND 25N112W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N101W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PARTS OF MEXICO FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N133W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N129W TO 22N119W TO 16N104W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES EAST-TO- NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER 6 HOURS. 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS RETURN TO THE AREA AT THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS DEVELOP AT THE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD...FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 88W EASTWARD...AND CONTINUE INTO 42 HOURS FROM 10N TO 12N FROM 90W EASTWARD. EXPECT ONLY 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE AREA AT THE 48- HOUR TIME PERIOD.

$$ MT

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