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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271514
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 14N96W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. A LARGE AREA OF N- NE 20-30 KT WINDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N95W TO 15N95W TO 12N98W WITH SEAS OF 10-15 FT. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 94W-100W...AND ALSO S OF 10N BETWEEN 101W-112W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THE HIGH PRES CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR THE GALE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO MINIMAL THRESHOLD WITH MAX SEAS IN THE GULF EXPECTED AT AROUND 13 FT AT THAT TIME.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NE 20- 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 30 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AND TO GALE FORCE OF 30-35 KT BY THU WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9 TO 10 FT AT THAT TIME. THE GALE SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 5N80W TO 5N90W. ITCZ FROM 5N90W TO 7N110W TO 6N120W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N E OF 80W.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N131W TO 13N120W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA AT 28N140W TO 14N127W. AN 95- 100 KT JET IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N120W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 1N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. NLY WINDS 15-20 KT ARE W OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH 9 FT NW SWELL. OTHERWISE 8 FT NW SWELL ARE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N1136W TO 18N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WED...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THEN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT THU.

$$ DGS

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