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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302202
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

MAJOR CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 130.9W OR ABOUT 1630 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII AT 2100 UTC...MOVING W NW OR 295 DEG AT 13 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A DISTINCT 15 NM WIDE EYE. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH JIMENA HAS BECOME VERY SYMMETRICAL AND BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUND THE 15 NM WIDE EYE WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 60 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN IN BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...AND ALSO SSW OF JIMENA WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 04N140W TO 07N132W TO 10N128W. JIMENA MAY STRENGTHEN JUST ENOUGH SOON TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE CATEGORY...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REACHING NEAR 17N139W BY TUE AFTERNOON. JIMENA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS OUTWARD TO 290 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE CENTER WITH SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO ABOUT 300 SE AND 540 NM NW SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER BY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS

A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N109W...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND IN BANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 11.5N111W TO 14N106W AND FROM 14N105W TO 10N102W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION MAY BE ORGANIZING INTO BANDING FEATURES. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED E OF THE LOW ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO 20-25 KT WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER...WINDS ARE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 11N111W BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON...AND TO NEAR 12N114W BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS JIMENA PULLS FURTHER TO THE W AND AWAY FROM IT.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...AND GRADUALLY CONTINUES NW TO 11N94W TO 13N104W...THEN TURNS SW TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 10N114W TO 12N119W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W- 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 97W- 102W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE 07N113W TO 08N118W.

SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 96W TO 103W AND OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N136W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE RIDGE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXED NW AND CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE THEN THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS JIMENA CROSSES 140W ON WED. THE GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NW 15-20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS E OF 122W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON MON INTO TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-7 FT BY TUE EVENING.

$$ AGUIRRE

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