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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012149
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jul 01 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough near
14N116W. Fresh n-ne winds are observed within 120 nm of the
center over the nw quadrant. Convection has burst near the
center over the past several hours and also appears to be
organizing into a band over the nw semicircle. A recent
scatterometer pass indicates surface winds have increased to 20-
30 kt within 120 nm over the nw semicircle. Tropical cyclone
formation is likely as the low moves just n of due w at 8-10 kt
reaching near 14n119w on Sat, and near 16N122W on Sun.

...TROPICAL WAVES..

A tropical wave is analyzed n of 05N along 83W and has been
moving w at near 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed to the n of 04N and e of 86W to the coast
of Colombia.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N100W to an embedded
1008 mb low pres at 10N105W, to an embedded 1008 mb low pres at
14N116W, to an embedded 1009 mb low at 12.5N133W. The ITCZ
develops sw of the low at 12.5N133w and continues sw to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 180 nm either side of a line from 05N78W to
13N99W, and also within 30 nm either side of a line from 10N133W
to 07N140W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the
surface low at 10N105W, roughly within 90 nm either side of a
line from 08N104W to 13N108W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the
surface low at 14N116W, roughly within 120 nm either side of a
line from 13N118W to 18N113W.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the
surface low at 12.5N133W, roughly within 120 nm either side of a
line from 11N130W to 16N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California Peninsula and northern Gulf of California this
weekend supporting gentle to moderate southerly flow across the
Gulf waters, except moderate to occasionally fresh southerly
breeze across the gulf waters to the n of 30N.

A w to e orientated ridge extends across the waters between 114-
120W with gentle anticyclonic winds observed around the ridge,
except moderate nw flow is observed n of 30N w of 118W where 5-8
ft seas are expected to continue into Sat morning. By then, a
weak trough will pass e across the waters n of 30N on Sat, with
the winds and seas diminishing and subsiding.

A surface low currently near 14N116W is forecast to move
northwestward across the far sw waters near 15N120W on Sat and
Sat night...possibly as a tropical cyclone...accompanied by at
least strong to near gale force winds, and seas to perhaps 12 ft.

S of 15N e of 120W:

See special features section above for details on a surface low
at 14N116W.

A 1008 mb low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
10N105W. Gentle to moderate winds are observed n of the low,
while moderate to fresh southwesterly flow is observed within
about 360 nm se of the low. This low is forecast to move wnw to
near 12N106W on Sat, and near 14N109W on Sun. Environmental
conditions will become more favorable for tropical cyclone
development early next week.

Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across the Gulf
of Papagayo overnight, with these conditions spreading w across
the waters from 09.5N to 12N between 86W and 92W early Sat, with
seas building to 10 ft. Only fresh drainage winds are expected
on Sat night.

W of 120W:

See special features section above for details on a surface low
at 14N116W that will move into the area w of 120W on Sun, and
continue moving westward next week.

A 1009 mb low low pres is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
12.5N133W, with fresh ne winds and 6-8 ft seas within 180 nm nw
of the low. Little change expected as the low weakens and
associated conditions shift w of 140W on sun night.

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. Combined seas of 7-10 ft, primarily due to ne swell, is
observed n of 26N, and is expected to propagate s to along 20N
on Sun before beginning to subside.

$$
Nelson

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