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AXPZ20 KNHC 252128
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N89W TO 08N111W THEN RESUMES FROM 06N115W TO 08N125W THEN RESUMES FROM 07N127W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 127W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS FROM 32N115W TO 27N125W TO 26N140W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH WHILE A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA AROUND POINT CONCEPTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD FRESH NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8-10 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 125W LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TO 28N BY LATE SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MON AFTERNOON.

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 31N139W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 28N125W TO 19N104W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 13N108W TO 06N113W AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. THE WESTERN TROUGH REACHES FROM 12N123W TO 07N127W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN U.S. CALIFORNIA WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT N OF 29.5N AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WHILE ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED 4-7 FT SEAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE WINDS WILL PULSE TO MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

$$ LEWITSKY

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