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AXPZ20 KNHC 272204 RRA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LONG DURATION EVENT OF N TO NE 30-40 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THU AFTERNOON. SEAS THERE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE IN THE 11-17 FT RANGE. NE SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS EVENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SWELLS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE AREA FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 120W AND FROM 08N TO 19N BETWEEN 113W AND 124W. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. WHEN THE GALE WINDS DIMINISH IN 48 HOURS...MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 10-13 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 9-12 FT AT THAT TIME. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON. THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH NE SWELL MERGING WITH THE AREA OF SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 04N83W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 05N90W TO 06N122W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 100-120 KT SOUTHERLY JET ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH PROPELLING UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH LIES FROM 26N134W TO 20N131W TO 16N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MEXICO N OF 15N. IN THE DEEP TROPICS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 01N97W.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 24N140W. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALONG FRONT. SEAS TO 9 FT NW SWELL LIE PRIMARILY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THE 8 FT.

NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO LESS THAN 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL BEGIN AGAIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU...WITH SEAS BUILDING AS HIGH AS 10 FT.

$$ SCHAUER/DGS

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