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AXPZ20 KNHC 050904
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 23.0N 114.8W AT 0900 UTC SEP 5 MOVING N OR 10 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS REMOVED TO N OF THE CENTER OF STORM FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. KEVIN CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR...LOWER SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N107W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 107W-112W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 13N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY N OF 15N W OF 137W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL START TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 138W.

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$ DGS

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