Home


000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED TO STRONG GALES TO AROUND 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FURTHER TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AS DEPICTED BY 1652 UTC ASCAT DATA...AND THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SEAS REMAIN EXTREMELY ROUGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...AND ARE STILL RUNNING 8-11 FT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCING THESE STRONG WINDS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH...AND THE CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT MIDDAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE SEEN TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE TIBURON BASIN. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG ENE WINDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILL THROUGH GAPS AND BAYS NEAR THE PACIFIC COASTS TODAY. THIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE PLUME OF STRONG ENE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06.5N92.5W...WHERE SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8-10 FT. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY SE OVERNIGHT ANDALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION... WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT...AND EXPAND N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS AND SEASWILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASES WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS PROLONGED GAP WIND EVENT IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A VERY LARGE AREA OF SEAS 8 FT ANDGREATER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND...AND ENCOMPASS THE AREAFROM 01N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 06.5N83W AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W TO 05N130W.


...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH SE THROUGH 23N120W TO 21N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5-10 KT NE-E WINDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W.

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-20N W OF 122W THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHRINKING TO 05-10N W OF 127W BY EARLY MON...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON TUE NIGHT.

$$ STRIPLING

Home